Resources
    Expectancy

    Expected Value Calculator

    Estimate whether win probability, planned reward, and planned risk create positive expectancy.

    Educational planning tool only. Results are simplified estimates and do not account for commissions, slippage, liquidity, margin, options Greeks, contract multipliers, tax treatment, or broker-specific requirements.

    Expected value

    Estimate the edge before the setup fires.

    Model the average result of a trade idea using win probability, planned reward, and planned risk. Values are illustrative planning inputs, not predictions.

    EV / Trade

    +0.35R

    Break-even win rate

    33.3%

    Loss probability

    55.0%

    Readout

    Positive expectancy

    Formula

    EV = (Win probability x Reward) - (Loss probability x Risk)

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